The biggest IPO in history is coming.
SpaceX is expected to list at a valuation of around $750 billion US — a market capitalisation that, if achieved, would push Elon Musk into territory no individual has ever occupied before. The first trillionaire. Bigger than many of the indices we track every day.
The hype is real. But so is the question.
What You’re Actually Buying
When a company lists at a valuation like this, you’re not buying what it is today. You’re buying what the market believes it will become.
SpaceX’s story is genuinely compelling. The technology is real. The track record in commercial launches is real. The ambition — and the total addressable market it’s chasing — is extraordinary. Space-based internet, satellite infrastructure, eventually interplanetary logistics. The vision is enormous.
But vision and valuation are two different things. At a starting market capitalization approaching $2 Trillion, a significant amount of that future is already priced in on day one.
The Index Question
One of the more interesting dynamics here is the passive investing angle.
SpaceX attempted to fast-track its way into the major index being the S&P 500 ahead of listing. That request was knocked back — no special entry. Which matters, because index inclusion at a market cap of this size would force enormous amounts of passive capital to buy the stock automatically, regardless of valuation.
Without that automatic inflow on day one, the opening price discovery becomes a purer test of genuine investor conviction. That’s actually a healthier outcome — even if it removes a short-term tailwind for the stock.
The AI Parallel
It’s worth noting the context this IPO lands in.
Markets are currently debating whether AI is a structural shift or a boom-bust cycle. SpaceX sits in a similar conversation — extraordinary potential, genuine innovation, but a valuation that requires the long-term story to play out largely as hoped.
That doesn’t make it a bad investment. But it does make it a high-conviction one. And high-conviction investments at high valuations require a very clear-eyed view of your time horizon, your risk tolerance, and what you’re actually paying for today versus what you expect to receive over time.
What History Tells Us About Landmark IPOs
The biggest floats in history carry enormous excitement on day one. They don’t always carry the best day-one returns.
Hype creates demand. Demand creates price pressure. And when the opening settles and the real price discovery begins, the market has a habit of finding its own level — which isn’t always where the fanfare suggested it would be.
None of this means avoid it. It means go in with your eyes open.
The Simple Test
Before buying into any IPO — let alone one of this magnitude — the question is straightforward.
Are you investing in the business, or in the excitement around it? If you can answer that clearly, you’re in a reasonable position to make a decision. If the honest answer is mostly the latter, that’s worth sitting with before committing capital.
SpaceX may well be one of the defining companies of the next fifty years. But defining companies and great investments at any given price aren’t always the same thing.
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